This is going to be ugly.
Yet again we have what is expected to be a non-competitive prime-time football game.
The New York Giants will be without quarterback Daniel Jones — maybe that’s a positive at this point? — and instead will turn to Tyrod Taylor.
They head to Buffalo as heavy underdogs to take on the Bills.
Thursday, I wrote about buying low on Courtland Sutton in a hold-your-nose spot on prime time.
He made one of the best touchdown catches you’ll see all season to secure the fourth reception.
Sunday is another buy-low opportunity, and I’m targeting running back James Cook.
Sunday night is a perfect matchup for Cook.
The Giants’ defense is, quite frankly, abysmal.
They rank 29th in DVOA against the run and have allowed the opposition to run at will. Take a look at how previous running backs have done:
Tony Pollard: 14 carries, 70 yards
James Conner: 23 carries, 106 yards
Christian McCaffrey/Elijah Mitchell: 29 carries, 127 yards
Kenneth Walker/Zach Charbonnet: 22 carries, 110 yards
De’Von Achane/Raheem Mostert: 21 carries, 216 yards
This is a defense that you can take advantage of, especially when ahead. Nine different running backs gained 10-plus yards in a single rush, and the Giants in general have allowed a gain of 20 or more yards on the ground in all but one game (49ers, 18 yards).
Tack on the fact the Giants could also be without two starting linebackers — Micah McFadden (ankle, questionable) and Azeez Ojulari (ankle, out) — and Cook should have no problem exploding by this struggling front seven.
Despite the veteran duo of Latavius Murray and Damien Harris, the 24-year-old Cook takes on the lion’s share of touches in the Bills’ ground game.
But over the past two weeks, Cook has rushed 17 times for a total of just 25 yards.
It has been a shock to see his struggles after a blazing start to the season, when the second-year back racked up 267 yards (6.1 yards per carry).
The two-week crater in Cook’s production won’t become a trend. The London game last week went sideways from the start, and Buffalo found itself in a negative game script.
The possibility of that repeating is minimal against the Giants, given the continually rising 14.5-point spread.
Two weeks ago, against Miami, Cook played a career-low in snaps. But it was a blowout, so I wouldn’t read too into the tea leaves on that one.
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That recent dip in production has set up Cook for a bounce back in Week 6.
Cook ranks seventh among all running backs in carries of 10-plus yards (eight).
His breakaway percentage is among the likes of Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard and Bijan Robinson, and that doesn’t even account for his ability in the passing game.
If Buffalo is without tight ends Dawson Knox (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (concussion), both of whom are questionable for Sunday, then Cook will benefit a ton in the passing game.
He has quickly become Josh Allen’s safety valve underneath, and has at least three targets and 17 receiving yards in all but one game.
It’s going to be a popular pick, but I love Cook having a field day against this Giants team. So long as this game isn’t a repeat of the Cowboys-49ers game last week, Cook should see 15-20 carries.
Buy low on Cook and grab his Over 58.5 rushing yards prop.
If the Buffalo tight ends are limited or do not suit up, I would look toward his receiving yards prop (16.5) or rush+receiving as well (78.5).