Yankees need Dominguez, Volpe, Wells at top of lineup

The Yankees have not developed quality position players in anything approaching bulk for more than a quarter of a century.

Reversing that is the most important item on their short-term agenda.

Because unless Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells turn out to be at least above-average players, the Yankees’ near future is going to be bleak.

We can play in fantasyland where the Yankees sign Cody Bellinger and Shohei Ohtani and trade for Juan Soto. I do not believe they will acquire any of them.

We can play the time-machine game and take endless shots at the Yankees for passing on Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager. But none are walking through that Bronx door.

If I were betting, my suspicion is that if they spend any big money this offseason it will be to try to land Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and that when it comes to their lineup, they will augment, rather than substantially impact.

If that proves correct, the Yankees will need two groups to make upgrades: the old (DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton) and the new (Dominguez, Volpe, Wells). I’m not particularly bullish on either group.

Reversing a fade is not easy, though if you want to have optimism, we should note that Rizzo was performing at a high level before a freak injury in late May ultimately led to post-concussion syndrome. LeMahieu had an .807 second-half OPS, including a .375 on-base percentage, working with new hitting coach Sean Casey. Stanton? That is a harder one to sell: He will play at age 34 next season, and his body just seems to have endured too many lower-half injuries.

As for the younger group, there is recent Yankees history working against it. Since the Core Four and Bernie Williams, the Yankees just have not developed a lot of impact position players in this century. The three best drafted or signed internationally since 2000 are Robinson Cano, Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge, and then perhaps after that Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson and Gary Sanchez. Cabrera and Cano, of course, have had their legacies muddied by ties to performance-enhancing drugs.

Sanchez, in a way, defines a worry with the organization. When Sanchez came to the Yankees full-time in 2016, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia said the same thing to me independently — that Sanchez was not just an elite power threat, but would be the best “hitter” on the team. And early on, Sanchez was a good hitter. But he morphed into an all-or-nothing category with homers, strikeouts and a plummeting batting average.

In Sanchez’s final Yankees season in 2021, he had a slash line of .204/.307/.423 with 23 homers and a 27.5 strikeout percentage. I thought, where did I see that recently? Oh, yeah, Volpe in his rookie season, which went: .209/.283/.383 with 20 homers and a 27.8 strikeout rate. Volpe arrived with the reputation as a good all-around hitter, too.

Now, you may want to say that Volpe will grow, that he was just a rookie, OK? But Sanchez regressed. And there has been a lot of regression with players such as Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird and Clint Frazier under the Yankees umbrella.

If you want to believe in Dominguez, Volpe and Wells — and maybe Oswaldo Cabrera, Everson Pereira, Oswald Peraza, and eventually Spencer Jones and Trey Sweeney — it would mean the Yankees are going to do a lot better than they have in the 2000s in developing players.

Let’s use 400 plate appearances in a season as a benchmark that a team is trusting a player to accumulate a lot of at-bats. The Yankees as an organization regularly rank near the bottom in that category among players who signed their original pro contracts with the franchise.

For example, in 2021, they had five players they originally signed reach at least 400 plate appearances in the majors: Judge, Nick Solak, Brett Gardner, Sanchez and Ben Gamel. In 2022, it was five again: Judge, Thairo Estrada, Jorge Mateo, Sanchez and Gamel. This year it was four: Volpe, Estrada, Judge and Ezequiel Duran.

In that entire grouping, the only players drafted by the Yankees were Judge, Solak, Gardner, Gamel and Volpe. So do you imagine Dominguez (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Volpe and Wells all taking 400 plate appearances in the same season for the Yankees? That would include two drafted players in Wells and Volpe.

And the Yankees haven’t exactly been dynamos internationally either. They get a lot of international signings to the majors, but there also is the fade issue with the best of this group, such as Sanchez and Luis Severino.

They pretty much spent their whole international financial pool in 2019 to sign Dominguez. But spending does not guarantee the Yankees success in this market.

In the 2014 international market, the Yankees decided not to care about the penalties incurred in going wild — which included being able to spend no more than $300,000 on any one international player in 2015 or 2016 — and they invested about $34 million in signings and penalties on a large group of players, including 10 viewed as among the best in that class.

Now, if the Yankees hit that class successfully, those players would be stars right now. For example, the Braves invested $100,000 to sign Ronald Acuña Jr. out of Venezuela in that class.

Want the 10 big ones the Yankees signed? Dermis Garcia, Nelson Gomez, Juan De Leon, Jonathan Amundaray, Antonio Arias, Hoy Park, Wilkerman Garcia, Diego Castillo, Miguel Flames and Bryan Emery. That group (even before the tax penalty) cost the Yankees $14.25 million in bonuses. Of those 10 signings, Castillo played one game in the majors this year; no one else played an inning. Castillo and Park were the combination the Yankees traded to the Pirates at the 2021 trade deadline to land Clay Holmes. That is the entirety of good that came from the investment.

So what has “Got my attention” this week is just why Volpe, Dominguez and Wells have to break this historical downturn for the Yankees. They don’t have to be Core Four great. But they have to be at least in the good-to-very-good bucket:

Dominguez: The last Yankees championship team in 2009 regularly used four switch-hitters in Melky Cabrera, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira. Posada and Bernie Williams were bedrocks of the dynasty Yankees with Chili Davis and Tim Raines playing supplemental switch-hitting roles along the way.

This season, the Yankees produced 11 homers in 467 plate appearances by their switch-hitters — four of those in 33 plate appearances by Dominguez. He is not due back before June next year. But if he is truly an impact player and Oswaldo Cabrera could play like his 2022 version, and not like the 2023 regression, the Yankees would have the versatility of two switch-hitters. Of course, Dominguez is different because if right, he could be a middle-of-the-order presence.

Is that who he really is? How much of a setback is this surgery? Can the Yankees plan as if they are going to get him at some point next year?

Volpe: The Yankees will continue to bet on the makeup and baseball IQ of Volpe, who was just too pull-centric as a rookie. Can he hit .260 with a .340 on-base percentage in the majors while maintaining (or improving upon) his 21-homer/24-steal rookie season?

In the dream scenario for the Yankees, those numbers would allow him to hit leadoff followed by Judge and Dominguez and …

Wells: Again, this is why this trio is so vital. In the upside scenario, they surround Judge atop the lineup for a while, de-emphasize the aging players who are in their fades and do it all while not yet making a lot of dough (besides Judge), allowing Hal Steinbrenner to be bolder elsewhere with his dollars.

And Dominguez and Wells could give the Yankees the lefty diversity they have sorely lacked.

The Yankees had just 1,650 lefty plate appearances in 2023, the second-fewest in the majors. The fewest belonged to the Astros (1,349), but when Houston sends a lefty batter to the plate, it is often Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker, who are two of the best hitters in the world (plus, they were without Michael Brantley for most of the season). The Yankees lefties hit a collective .219.

Wells, in his final eight games, had seven extra-base hits, including four homers. There is a sense about him that he will hit in the majors, but will he be able to handle the catching duties? He seemed fine down the stretch. But if he can hit and can’t field, would the Yankees have the nerve to move Stanton out as the DH?

Would Aaron Boone (I assume it would be Aaron Boone) even have the stomach to de-emphasize the older group in a lineup that might look like this at full strength: Volpe, Judge, Dominguez, Wells, Gleyber Torres, Rizzo (so, to this point, three lefty bats in the top six), Stanton, LeMahieu and Kevin Kiermaier (yeah, I put Kiermaier’s lefty bat into the lineup)?

There is one more item as you think about the Yankees not getting the most out of drafts with so much riding on Volpe and Wells.

If you watch the Orioles-Rangers Division Series, you might notice that each team has just the kind of lefty bat attached to five-tool skills the Yankees have been craving. For the Orioles, that’s Gunnar Henderson, and for the Rangers, left fielder Evan Carter.

The Yankees took Volpe with the 30th pick in 2019. With the first selection of the second round, pick No. 42, the Orioles took Henderson. Again, it is not just the Yankees who skipped Henderson; it was pretty much the whole sport that contributed to his falling out of the first round.

The following year, with the 28th overall pick, the Yankees took Wells. The next pick was by the Dodgers, who selected Bobby Miller, who started (and was shaky in) their Division Series Game 2 on Monday night. With the 50th overall pick, the Rangers selected Carter. Again, an entire industry let Carter get to the middle of the second round, not just the Yankees. But the Yankees have failed to secure offensive impact not named Judge at any point of the draft for many years.

Is that about to change?

My totally made-up trade

Jake Bauers from the Yankees to the Marlins for Tanner Scott.

Now, I want to level with you nice folks. I began this as a much bigger trade — Bauers, Gleyber Torres and Clarke Schmidt for Luis Arraez and Scott. I backed out of that because as much as I think the kind of hitting profile that Arraez offers — lefty bat, low strikeout rate — would be useful for the Yankees, I am just not sure his overall value is better than Torres’ alone.

Arraez has an extra year of control — unable to be a free agent until after the 2025 season, compared to Torres after next year. But as cavalier as Torres can get on defense, he is still a better fielder than Arraez while offering a lot more power. Furthermore, the 2023 version of Torres was one who really controlled the strike zone, too.

So the idea of Torres and Schmidt for basically Arraez was too much, even if the simulator at baseballtradevalues.com had it as just a mild overpay for the Yankees. The trade was approved with Bauers and Scott added, so I just pulled that accepted trade out by itself, though I would think the Marlins would say no. And should say no.

But this trade proposal allows me to highlight areas these teams have to address.

Jorge Soler almost certainly is going to opt out of his $13 million contract for 2024 coming off a 36-homer/.853-OPS campaign. The Marlins could try to re-sign him coming off their first playoff appearance in a 162-game season since 2003. But with bat-first Josh Bell (if he does not opt out of his $16.5 million contract for 2024) and Avisail Garcia due a combined $28.5 million, will the Marlins be able to afford the bat-first dollars of Soler, who I would guess comes in at around two years, $36 million or three at $45 million?

The question becomes even more complicated because the Marlins may have to now spend some money in the rotation knowing ace Sandy Alcantara (due $9 million next year) is going to miss the 2024 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

MLB Trade Rumors has Bauers pegged for $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, plus he has three years of control. That is the profile of a player that fits the Marlins. But do they like his potential upside? Bauers just turned 28 last week, yet six organizations already have brought him in, including heavily analytical groups in Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Seattle and The Bronx. There is clearly something in his metrics that teams like.

The Yankees saw something in a player who hit the ball harder, pulled it more and got it in the air more frequently than in his past. That led to 12 homers in 272 plate appearances, which is a very good 4.4 percent, similar to Nolan Arenado, Nick Castellanos and Bobby Witt Jr. (albeit in far fewer plate appearances). Still, he hit just .202, struck out 34.9 percent of the time and provides no extra benefits defensively, on the bases or in left-vs.-left situations.

The Marlins would have to see value, that in his prime with several seasons of control, Bauers is about to put it together and be a productive DH type for a few years. Even then I would think the Marlins believe they could do better for Scott coming off his best season.

Lefty relief is arguably the Marlins’ greatest area of strength. No team had a lefty reliever face more batters than Miami’s 1,237, thanks to the excellent seasons of Scott, Andrew Nardi, Steve Okert and A.J. Puk. That latter trio has more control than Scott, who is a free agent after the 2024 season.

Miami could be selling high on Scott. He began last season with a career 14.8 walk percentage and in 2023 had it drop to 7.8 while still striking out a career-best 33.9 percent of those he faced. Was this an anomaly — the career 4.61 ERA reliever dropping to 2.31 in 74 outings? There has never been doubt about Scott’s stuff — just his command. Do the Marlins (and the sport) believe the hard-throwing lefty made no-doubt changes that are not mercurial?

If so, even just a season of him should net more than a flier that Bauers has an upside for three years.

But it is a reminder that with Wandy Peralta a free agent, the Yankees do have to find a lefty reliever and/or re-sign Peralta.

Whose career do you got?

This has not been a particularly good postseason for the Yankees, beyond even that they are not in it. Does it make any Yankees fan feel better than the three AL East teams (Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore) were 0-6 in these playoffs through the weekend?

If so, it has to feel worse to watch pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and Nathan Eovaldi perform with an excellence and calm that was questioned in New York.

And there is this, too: The Yankees talked seriously to the Marlins at the 2022 trade deadline about a deal to land Pablo Lopez in which Gleyber Torres was among those discussed. But no trade was finalized. Though Miami had interest in Oswald Peraza, too, the clubs could not find the right combination of players to make it work.

Instead, Miami dealt Lopez last offseason to Minnesota for Arraez, who won the NL batting title in 2023 after winning the AL version in 2022.

Lopez had a terrific first season with Minnesota with a 3.66 ERA over 194 innings, and in his first two starts this postseason, allowed one run in 12 ⅔ innings to the Blue Jays and Astros. Also, he was willing before this season to sign a four-year, $73.5 million extension that begins in 2024.

So think, if the Yankees were willing to pull off that trade and do that extension, they probably would have stayed out of the Carlos Rodon market and actually ended up with a pitcher who could stand up to Houston in the postseason. Of course, those are a lot of assumptions. Remember, Lopez also was in a more fragile health situation last season, and a trade to a contender like the Yankees would have pushed him more. Would he have had the same effectiveness this year?

Alas, spilled milk.

But for this week’s “whose career do you got,” let’s go back to an earlier time. What if the Yankees decided after the 2020 pandemic season to trade Torres. He did not have a good year. But it was a weird year. In addition, the Yankees were still wearing blinders and insisting Torres was a shortstop. He had just completed his age-23 season, and in his first two full years in 2018-19, Torres had combined for 62 homers and looked like one of the best young hitters in the game.

What if at that moment, they had decided to trade Torres, what might they have received in return for him? Because the Yankees could have turned to a farmhand to replace Torres at second.

Instead, the Yanks stuck with Torres for yet another season at short (it didn’t go well) and remained way too right-handed. To get a lefty — Rougned Odor — onto the roster, they sold the contract of that farmhand, Thairo Estrada, to the Giants.

In the three years since Estrada has been a Giant, he essentially has performed as well as Torres for a fraction of the price. Estrada has a San Francisco slash line of .266/.320/.416 with a 7.9 Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) compared to .264/.330/.427 with 7.4 WAR for Torres. Estrada is the superior baserunner and defender. He’s also only 10 months older than Torres, but won’t be a free agent after the 2026 season.

So moving forward, whose career do you got?

Even in 2023, playing 38 fewer games and with Torres having a strong rebound season offensively, Estrada finished as a 3.9 WAR player with his 14 homers, 23 steals and high-end defense compared to 3.2 for Torres.

Roster stuff maybe only I notice

There were 174 pitchers in the majors this year who appeared in at least 40 games. Of those, just one signed his first pro contract with the White Sox — Aaron Bummer, who appeared in 61 games for Chicago.