Let’s take a zoomed-out look at things before getting consumed by the minutiae of the season.
The Islanders have acted like a team that believes their championship window is open because they believe their championship window is open.
Whatever the evidence to the contrary — and the past two seasons have provided some significant evidence to the contrary — this group of players and the management that has continually stood behind them is steadfast in that belief.
The decisions undertaken as a result of that belief amount to a significant gamble.
In a salary-cap sport, loading up now almost always means paying a price later. And the Islanders are loaded up now.
The Isles already are committed to paying $49,550,000 in salary for the 2026-27 season — fourth-most in the league. As of opening night 2023, they also have the third-oldest roster in the league (both figures courtesy of the immensely helpful CapFriendly).
We don’t yet know what the salary cap will be three years from now — preliminary estimates reportedly place next year’s figure at $87.7 million as the league is finally freed from its COVID-induced flat cap.
To pluck a number out of the sky, let’s say it’s $100 million. That would mean the Islanders already have committed nearly half of their available dollars, three years in advance.
Unto itself, that is not necessarily a bad thing. But it is, decidedly, a tradeoff.
The Lightning, who have $58,100,000 committed in the same season, the most of any team, would be happy to make that tradeoff. They have won two championships, made the Cup final a third time and if they can navigate Andrei Vasilevskiy’s injury, will be in with a shot come this postseason. By 2026, they probably will have an aging and overpaid roster, but any team in the league would make that trade.
The Devils, who rank behind Tampa Bay at $54,725,000, figure to be Cup contenders for the foreseeable future. They have the sixth-youngest roster in the league, and are fresh off the franchise’s best season in over a decade. No worries there — they’re at the beginning of their window. Ditto for Ottawa, the other team ahead of the Islanders.
The Islanders, however, are at risk of miscalculating the tradeoff. It’s difficult to see a world where they are title contenders three years from now. The only player they have under contract that year who will be below 30 is Mathew Barzal, who will be 29. Bo Horvat and Ilya Sorokin will be 31, Pierre Engvall will be 30, Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech will be 32, Scott Mayfield will be 33, Casey Cizikas will be 35 and Semyon Varlamov will be 38.
That doesn’t portend imminent disaster — if the right decisions are made, the Islanders can stay competitive, though the fact that many of those players are under contract through 2030 is another thing to navigate.
And not all, or even a majority, of those contracts are worthy of criticism — signing Barzal, Horvat and Sorokin to long-term extensions within the past year, for example, were no-brainers. At the time they signed, Pelech and Pulock formed one of the best defensive pairs in the league.
This is a business where the margin for error is incredibly small. Had the Islanders not allowed their only shorthanded goal all season in Game 7 against Tampa in 2021 and gone on to handle a Montreal side that likely would have been overmatched in the Stanley Cup Final, things would be quite different.
Had UBS Arena been completed on time for the 2021-22 season — a delay that happened because of a once-in-a-century pandemic — and that season did not have to start with a 13-game road trip, who knows how things might have played out? It is easy to criticize in hindsight.
Still, for the Islanders to operate now as if their title window is still open means they need to be right. Otherwise, they will be paying the same price as Tampa Bay without the same payoff.
Want to catch a game? The Islanders schedule with links to buy tickets can be found here.
The end of the Ross Johnston era
Ross Johnston being claimed off waivers by Anaheim on Tuesday came as a surprise, but there’s a case that it’s good for all parties.
The Islanders get a $1.1 million cap hit off their books that was becoming dead weight with Johnston clearly too low on the organizational depth chart to justify keeping.
Johnston gets a fresh start on a young Ducks team and to play under Brent Thompson, who coached him in Bridgeport and is now an assistant on Greg Cronin’s staff. The Ducks get a player who will be all too happy to help protect Trevor Zegras, Troy Terry, Mason McTavish, Leo Carlsson and Jamie Drysdale.
The writing for Johnston’s departure was on the wall for a long time.
It’s worth noting, though, just how loved he was in the Islanders’ dressing room. That is as big a reason as any for why Johnston was able to stick around for as long as he did, even when a series of AHL call-ups were given playing time over him last season. He never complained. He always did what was asked of him. He always stuck up for his teammates. That goes a long way.
The Fasching family
Hudson Fasching’s on-ice story has gotten a lot of well-deserved attention since he’s been with the Islanders. The Post sat down with Fasching this week to discuss his off-ice story.
Fasching’s siblings, Cooper and Mallory, were born with a rare mitochondrial disorder, unable to walk or talk.
“I think it’s given me perspective, even from a young age, of just gratitude,” Fasching said. “Just be grateful for everything you can do and try to do everything to the max ability that you can, because there are other alternatives to life.”
Projected lineup
Here’s my best — and last — guess at what the lineup will look like against the Sabres on Saturday. Simon Holmstrom still is assigned to AHL Bridgeport, but should be called up as soon as Thursday — there was no point in doing so Wednesday because the Islanders didn’t practice.
Simon Holmstrom—Bo Horvat—Mathew Barzal
Pierre Engvall—Brock Nelson—Kyle Palmieri
Anders Lee—Jean-Gabriel Pageau—Hudson Fasching
Matt Martin—Casey Cizikas—Cal Clutterbuck
Adam Pelech—Noah Dobson
Alexander Romanov—Ryan Pulock
Sebastian Aho—Scott Mayfield
Scratches: Oliver Wahlstrom, Julien Gauthier, Samuel Bolduc
I’m expecting the scratches to shift a good deal throughout the season. Wahlstrom is clearly still recovering from knee surgery, but will be a factor at some point. Gauthier had a good training camp. Bolduc is young and needs at least some playing time to make the most of this season. Unlike last season, when it was pretty clear who would be scratched on most nights, things could change pretty regularly.
