Before we get into this week’s Ugly Underdog we have to take a moment to thank the good folks over at UMass for getting us to the window with a terrific cover against Toledo.
The Minutemen went into halftime with the lead, but in true Ugly Underdog fashion they made us sweat out the 19-point spread.
It ain’t ever easy in these streets.
Our beloved Minutemen are back in action this week against Penn State, but we’ll resist the temptation of backing them as a 41.5-point against the Nittany Lions (who are in a big lookahead spot with Ohio State on deck).
Instead of another tango with UMass, we’ll head to Tuscaloosa, where the resurgent Crimson Tide are 19.5-point favorites over Arkansas on Saturday.
A few weeks ago, the narrative around No. 11 Alabama (5-1) was that the dynasty was well and truly done.
Toast. Kaput.
Nick Saban had lost his fastball and the Crimson Tide had fallen way behind Georgia and were caught by resurrected programs such as Florida State, Penn State and Texas.
You couldn’t really blame anybody for giving up on the Tide, either.
Things looked bleak after a loss to Texas and a very uninspiring win over South Florida.
The team was getting nothing from the quarterback and Saban seemed to be at a loss for answers when he met with the media after his Tide barely escaped South Florida.
But things can change so quickly in college football and after some gutsy wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M, it seems as if the tides are shifting.
Alabama is back and lurking just outside the College Football Playoff picture, like a horse waiting to pick up the pieces if the race begins to fall apart.
If you’ve been betting college football long enough, you know that all of this positive momentum means only one thing. It’s time to fade the surging Tide.
While Alabama deserves plenty of credit for taking care of the Rebels and Aggies, the latter on the road, it’s still fair to question this team’s ceiling with the inconsistent play it’s getting from quarterback Jalen Milroe.
While Milroe was terrific for the most part against Texas A&M last Saturday, he’s had plenty of ugly moments this season and made an ill-advised decision late in Alabama’s win in College Station that could have turned disastrous.
Milroe seems to have taken major strides since a rough start to the season that saw him get benched, but he’s not the type of quarterback you can trust to keep things clean, which is a major factor when you need to cover a big spread.
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It’s been a rough season to this point for Sam Pittman and Arkansas (2-4), but his Razorbacks have also been a little snakebit during their current four-game malaise.
A loss to BYU at home was ugly, but it’s one of three one-score defeats for Arkansas this season.
The Hogs also lost by three to LSU and seven to Ole Miss, two strong teams that were trendy preseason picks to contend for a spot in the SEC Championship Game.
Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson’s play has been erratic to start the season, but he’s an experienced signal-caller who has performed admirably against better Alabama teams in the past.
The moment won’t be too big for Jefferson.
With Arkansas wilting and Alabama surging, you can expect to see a lot of action come in on the Tide, setting bettors up for a great buy-low, sell-high spot.
Back the Razorbacks +19.5 as your Ugly UnderHogs of the Week.