I don’t think Ohio State is that good.
Kyle McCord isn’t that good.
He ranks 63rd in Pro Football Focus’ passing grades.
Though he has thrown just one interception, he has accounted for six turnover-worthy plays.
The offensive line is an issue. McCord can’t get comfortable in the pocket.
And they aren’t getting much push in the run game, ranking 101st nationally in Rush Success Rate.
It’s hard to field an elite offense with a middling quarterback, a lousy ground game and an underwhelming offensive line.
The Buckeyes struggled against Indiana and Youngstown State, and they should have finished with just 10 points against Notre Dame if it weren’t for a dropped interception.
Let’s talk about the Notre Dame game.
The Fighting Irish had a 96 percent postgame win expectancy there.
The Irish posted a 47 percent success rate (77th percentile) while holding the Buckeyes to a 33 percent mark (33rd percentile).
Ohio State has inflated in the market because of that lucky win, and I’m happy to fade the overvalued Buckeyes, especially with the struggles on offense.
Meanwhile, Purdue is undervalued.
The Boilermakers rank top-50 nationally in Success Rate and Success Rate allowed, but they’re sub-100th in Finishing Drives on both sides of the ball.
Generally, a team’s red-zone play regresses toward its rest-of-field play.
I expect more points scored and fewer points allowed for Purdue in the coming weeks.
That starts here against Ohio State.
For what it’s worth, Purdue has hosted Ohio State eight times since 2000, winning five.
West Lafayette is cursed ground for Buckeye faithful, and I think they’re vulnerable again on Saturday.
The pick: Purdue +18.5.
Texas A&M (+3) over TENNESSEE
Tennessee has played the 77th-toughest schedule in FBS.
The Volunteers have four wins this season, two coming against sub-70 SP+ teams (Virginia, UTSA) and another against FCS Austin Peay.
Yet, the Vols have struggled against this cupcake schedule.
Joe Milton is too inconsistent.
His offense ranks 90th in expected points added (EPA) per pass.
Milton has thrown for more than 250 yards once this season.
The run game has saved Tennessee, but the Vols are rushing into an elite front seven.
The Aggies rank top-15 nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed, EPA per rush allowed, and Havoc generated.
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Nobody has produced more tackles for loss than A&M’s 57.
I suspect Jimbo Fisher’s elite front seven will stack the box and stuff Tennessee’s rush attack, forcing an inconsistent Milton to beat the Aggies over the top.
I’m betting Milton will fail. T
his is his toughest test of the season, and it’ll prove too tough.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make Texas A&M a slight road favorite here.
The wrong team is favored.
Last week: 0-3. Texas (L), Florida Atlantic (L), Colorado State (L)
2023 season: 11-7.