Everything looks hunky-dory for the Toronto Maple Leafs coming out of the gates.
The Buds are 2-0-0, they’ve scored 12 goals already and Auston Matthews has recorded back-to-back hat tricks to start the season.
The Leafs will have a chance to pad those numbers even further Monday as they are big favorites at home against Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks.
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs prediction
(7 p.m. ET., ESPN+)
Toronto entered the season as the betting favorite to win the Atlantic Division and has been one of the best regular-season teams in the NHL for a handful of years, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Maple Leafs off and running to start the 2023-24 season.
That said, there did seem to be more questions surrounding this version of the Buds compared to years past, most of which pointed to the team’s defense and goaltending.
While the Leafs are rightly known as an offensive powerhouse due to the presence of Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, they were also one of the best defensive teams in the league in 2022-23 and goaltender Ilya Samsonov put together a resurgent season after the Capitals allowed him to walk two summers ago.
But Toronto made a number of moves in the offseason that altered the identity of the team and caused plenty of people inside hockey to wonder if they’d take a step back defensively.
So far, it seems like the skeptics may be onto something.
With two wins, four points and 12 goals already on the board, you’re not going to hear many people gripe about the way Toronto is playing, but when it comes to betting it’s important to look beyond the box score in order to uncover whether a team is truly as good as its record.
And while we know that the Leafs will always bet on themselves in high-event games, it does seem like they’re playing a bit of a dangerous game right now.
Toronto is firing on all cylinders and the power play is clicking at 57.1 percent, but they are giving up a lot of good looks the other way.
The Leafs surrendered five goals and plenty of high-danger scoring chances to the underdog Canadiens in the season opener and then allowed the Wild back into Saturday’s contest before Matthews and the stars put them away.
Also concerning is that Samsonov has really struggled in both contests, allowing nine goals on 56 shots and finding himself out of position on a number of occasions.
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Joseph Woll may get the nod Monday night, but it’s anybody’s guess how the rookie netminder plays, especially since he struggled in the preseason.
The odds tell us that the Blackhawks are likely to be overmatched Monday night and are not likely to be the team that throws some cold water on the Toronto hype machine, but don’t forget that the Maple Leafs were a big favorite against Montreal on Wednesday night and found themselves down 5-3 late in the third period before mounting a comeback.
Had the Habs held on (Montreal also had a potential 3-0 goal called back), the narrative around the Leafs would be quite different.
Bedard and the Blackhawks (+280) will need a lot of things to go their way to pull the upset Monday night, but there’s a lot of noise in the Leafs’ stat line and their defensive issues make them a vulnerable favorite when they get to these kind of prices.
The pick: Blackhawks ML +280 (BetMGM Sportsbook)